Critical Uncertainties

The below is text adapted for virtual use, taking text mostly from the original description here: http://www.liberatingstructures.com/30-critical-uncertainties/

1. Whole group: Invite participants to individually make a list of uncertainties they face by asking, “In your/our operating environment, what factors are impossible to predict or control their direction?” 5 minutes.
2. Prioritize the most critical factors by asking, “Which factors threaten your/our ability to operate successfully?” 10 minutes.
3. Based on the group’s history and experience, select the two most critical and most uncertain (X and Y). 5 minutes. This step can occur as a whole group with voting, or can be done in smaller groups of 4-5 with each group voting for what interests them.
4. Create a grid (e.g. on Google slides) with two axes—X & Y—with a “more of <—  —> less of” continuum for the factor to be represented on each axis. For example, for the X axis, if the number of new products is a critically uncertain factor, one end of the X axis is a large number of new products and the other is no new products. Repeat for the Y factor and axis. For instance, if patent protection is a critical factor, one end of the Y axis is strong patent protection and the other is no patent protection. Four quadrants are created. See example below. 5 minutes.
5. Groups can be split in different ways. Groups may be split up that they work on different quadrants while the whole group are working on the same topic; or different groups can be responsible for all four quadrants with any combination of axes. While working on quadrants, participants are encouraged to creatively name and write a thumbnail scenario for the quadrants. 10 minutes.
6. The four groups share their scenarios briefly. 2 minutes each.
7. Each group brainstorms three strategies that would help the group operate successfully in the scenario that it has described (this might mean groups choose the strategies that would work in different quadrants, given uncertainties, and prioritize this strategy for its versatility across critical uncertainties). 10 minutes.
8. The four groups share their strategies briefly. 2 minutes each.
9. The whole group sifts results to identify which strategies are robust (strategies that can succeed in multiple quadrants) and which are hedging (strategies that can succeed in only one scenario but protect you from a plausible calamity). The balance of strategies can succeed only in one scenario. 10 minutes.
10. Each small group debriefs with What, So What, Now What? 10 minutes.
11. The four groups share their debriefs and the whole group makes first-steps decisions about their Now What. 10 minutes.