Critical Uncertainties

Activity

Liberating Structures, Ongoing engagement

Critical Uncertainties

Autumm Caines

Maha Bali

Engage students or faculty in a structured process to make sense of complex challenges. Use this activity to explore difficult or confusing topics collaboratively.

Tech needed: Video conferencing, Breakout rooms, Shared online space

Asynchronous

Duration: 30+ mins

Student preparation: None

Educator preparation: Moderate

ACTIVITY PURPOSE

Develop strategies for operating in a range of plausible yet unpredictable futures.

USEFUL FOR

With students

Use this activity in class to help students collaboratively explore and discuss complex, uncertain issues—whether related to their field of study, current events, or future career challenges. It encourages critical thinking, scenario planning, and strategic problem-solving, making abstract or confusing concepts more tangible and actionable.

With faculty and staff

Faculty can use this activity to explore uncertainties in their work, anticipate different futures, and develop flexible strategies. It builds resilience and helps teams adapt to unexpected challenges in teaching, research, or operations.

PREPARATION

Watch the video demonstration above where educational developers use this activity to discuss the critical uncertainty: “Are we going to be on campus or online?”—a scenario explored during the COVID-19 pandemic. Please note that the video above was developed for a summer 2020 professional development activity called DigPINS – it was not created for this particular resource, so there is mention of a synchronous session and things to sign up for – this was part of the summer 2020 course.
Prepare spaces for participants to list uncertainties (e.g., a shared document) and to create axes for exploring quadrants (e.g., Google Slides or another collaborative visual tool).

INSTRUCTIONS

Individual reflection (5 minutes): Ask participants to individually list uncertainties they face by answering: “In our operating environment, what factors are impossible to predict or control?”
Prioritise uncertainties (10 minutes): As a group, identify which of these factors most threaten the ability to operate successfully.
Select critical uncertainties (5 minutes): Based on group experience, select the two most critical and uncertain factors to serve as the X and Y axes. This can be done through whole-group voting or in smaller groups (4-5 participants) each voting on preferred factors.
Create the grid (5 minutes): Using a shared space (e.g., Google Slides), draw a grid with the X and Y axes representing the two critical uncertainties. Define a continuum for each axis (e.g., for “number of new products,” one end represents many new products, the other no new products). This forms four quadrants.
Develop scenarios (10 minutes): Divide participants into groups. Each group either works on a different quadrant or all four quadrants, depending on your preference. Groups creatively name and write brief scenarios for their assigned quadrants.
Share scenarios (8 minutes): Each group presents their scenario briefly (about 2 minutes each).
Brainstorm strategies (10 minutes): Groups identify three strategies that would help operate successfully in their scenario(s), prioritising those adaptable across multiple uncertainties.
Share strategies (8 minutes): Each group briefly shares their strategies (about 2 minutes each).
Analyse strategies (10 minutes): The whole group reviews strategies to identify which are robust (effective across multiple quadrants) and which are hedging (effective in only one scenario but protect against specific risks).
Group debrief (10 minutes): In small groups, reflect using the questions: What? So what? Now what?
Final reflections and next steps (10 minutes): Groups share their debrief insights, and the whole group discusses and decides on initial actions for the Now what phase.

DURATION

Synchronously, this could take up to two hours. With asynchronous components, you could take more time to reflect asynchronously, and the synchronous session can be 45 minutes, or so, in breakout rooms, before regrouping.

ADAPTATIONS AND EXAMPLES

It is meant to be fully synchronous, but in the video above, it is divided up into synchronous and asynchronous components.
You can choose to have all groups use the same two axes, or you can allow (as demonstrated in the demo video) different groups to focus on different axes that they choose together.

TECHNICAL REQUIREMENTS

Some space for discussing different uncertainties that we care about (like a Google Doc) and some way for people to vote for ones.
Some space for collaborative visualisation like Google Slides.
Breakout rooms to work in small groups.

USEFUL RESOURCES

Critical Uncertainties as described on the Liberating Structures website.
Liberating Structures offer simple yet powerful ways to rethink how we teach, facilitate, and collaborate in higher education. By introducing small shifts in how we engage students, plan learning experiences, or work with colleagues, these approaches make it easier for everyone—not just experts—to lead, contribute, and innovate. With 33 adaptable techniques, Liberating Structures enable inclusive, participatory learning and development, whether in classrooms, workshops, curriculum design sessions, or library-based teaching. They can replace or enhance traditional methods like lectures, discussions, and brainstorming, creating space for all voices to shape the learning environment and drive meaningful change. Learn more What are Liberating Structures?.